Commentary

The EPL's relegation battle

West Ham and Blackpool are among the most likely to fall out of the top flight

Updated: April 28, 2011, 1:05 PM ET
By Jonathan Costa | ESPN Stats and Information

The title race in England appears to have been settled, with Manchester United almost a 99 percent favorite to win the league according to ESPN's Soccer Power Index. However, the competition to stay in the Barclays Premier League for the 2011-12 season is coming down to the wire.

ESPN's Soccer Power Index projects four teams with relegation chances of greater than 40 percent with less than a month to go in the season, and the gap between 15th and 20th was only six points as of Thursday morning.

There are no trophies for finishing 17th, but a club that stays up in the Premier League can bank on television payments of at least $60 million next season, while a club that is relegated gets a far smaller share of the television pie and a "parachute payment" from the Premier League of roughly $24 million.

So with a large financial incentive at stake, here's a look at how SPI projects the bottom of the table to shake out and some key battles along the way:


To see which teams are most likely to face relegation in the Premier League, you must be an ESPN Insider.