Commentary

Arsenal's path to a title

The odds are against the Gunners, but there is still a chance for them

Updated: April 7, 2011, 4:24 PM ET
By Albert Larcada | ESPN Stats and Information
Wayne RooneyMatthew Peters/Getty ImagesWayne Rooney's suspension for swearing on camera opens the door a little more for Arsenal.

Last Saturday may well prove to have been the turning point in the title races in England, Spain and Italy. Here is a look at what happened and the effect it had on each race:

England

EPL leader Manchester United came back from a 2-0 deficit to score four unanswered goals -- all in the second half -- to win at West Ham. Arsenal struggled at home versus Blackburn, managing only a scoreless draw, and Chelsea also drew 1-1 at Stoke.

What does all of this mean? United has a seven-point lead on Arsenal in the current table (though has played one more game) and is 10 points ahead of everyone else.

Using ESPN's Soccer Power Index we simulated the remainder of the matches in the EPL this season 10,000 times before the weekend and after.

Albert Larcada is an Analytics Specialist in ESPN's Stats & Information group. Among other analytics projects, he maintains, advances and writes about ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) algorithm.