Best Kentucky Derby value bets

Revolutionary among six horses that offer the best value on Saturday

Originally Published: May 3, 2013
By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider

RevolutionaryAP Photo/Charlie RiedelRevolutionary has been one of the hottest horses entering the Kentucky Derby.

In horse racing, one of the best betting days of the year is the first Saturday in May when the Kentucky Derby rolls around. The first leg of the Triple Crown, the Derby is the only race in which 20 horses can run -- which presents great opportunities and value. Over the past 10 years, the post-time favorite has had average odds of just over 5-1. Favorites have not performed well in the Kentucky Derby, as the average odds for the winning horse in the past 20 years is 16.25-1.

This year, a lot of the betting focus will be on Orb (No. 16, 7-2 morning line favorite) and Verrazano (No. 14, 4-1 morning line). The former has won four in a row and by all accounts has trained superbly at Churchill Downs. In addition, jockey Joel Rosario is one of the top riders in the country.

Verrazano, who is a perfect 4-for-4, comes from the powerhouse barn of trainer Todd Pletcher and has had plenty of time to acclimate to the Churchill Downs racing surface.

Plenty of horses offer great value and appear to have a realistic to shot to win the Run for the Roses. Here are my six best value bets for the Kentucky Derby:

Revolutionary (No. 3, morning line 10-1) -- It seems that every year there is always a great amount of pressure on Pletcher to win the Run for the Roses. The former assistant to Hall of Fame conditioner D. Wayne Lukas has been among the best in racing for years, and this horse presents a good value.


To read the full take on the best value bets for the Kentucky Derby, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Lane Gold

ESPN Insider

A lifelong horse racing fan, Lane Gold hosts a weekly radio show called the Kentucky Winner's Circle and has a horse racing blog.