Preview and projection: Canada

A vast array of talent doesn't guarantee Canada gold -- or even a medal

Updated: January 22, 2014, 10:17 AM ET
By Timo Seppa | Hockey Prospectus

Rick Nash and Sidney CrosbyRichard Lautens/Getty ImagesRick Nash, Sidney Crosby & Co. hope to repeat as Olympic champions in Sochi.

Olympic Previews: USA | Canada | Russia | Sweden
Finland | Czech Republic | Slovakia | The Rest

With enough star power to field a "B Team" that would contend for a medal, no other country comes close to Canada in hockey talent. However, the Canadians are far from locks to repeat as gold medalists in Sochi.

By quantifying each team's players by their recent performances over the past two "partial" seasons -- meaning the 48 games of the lockout-shortened 2013 campaign combined with the 40-plus games in the books for 2013-14 -- we have come up with top-level projections for each squad, ranking them on offense, defense and goaltending, as well as overall.

The metric of choice, as usual, is Hockey Prospectus' Goals Versus Threshold (GVT). Team Canada, at 3.9 GVT per game, would blow away an average NHL team, at 1.5 GVT per game.


To read the full preview and projection for Team Canada at the Sochi Olympics, including where the numbers say they'll finish, sign up for Insider today.