Commentary

Plugging Holes: Fixing NHL teams

Analyzing NHL rosters with new-school stats and old-school savvy

Originally Published: June 16, 2009
By Puck Prospectus & E.J. Hradek | ESPN Insider

As the NHL offseason officially gets underway, Insider is offering a look into the future by marrying new-school stats with old-school savvy.

The writers of Puck Prospectus have crunched their advanced metrics to identify each team's biggest statistical shortcoming and offer a potential solution. ESPN the Magazine Senior Writer E.J. Hradek then provides his perspective, relying on his 20 years covering the NHL to assess potential impact and likelihood.

Every weekday, we'll add a new division, starting with the Atlantic Division.

Atlantic Division

PLUGGING HOLES

Improving the Pens' attack, the proper No. 1 pick for the Isles, a big trade for the Flyers -- we touch on it all in the Atlantic Division.

Team Need
Pittsburgh Penguins Roster | Stats A dynamic wing
New York Islanders Roster | Stats A young core
Philadelphia Flyers Roster | Stats A top pairing defenseman
New York Rangers Roster | Stats A goal-scoring forward
New Jersey Devils Roster | Stats Power-play center

Southeast Division

PLUGGING HOLES

Touching up the Tampa blue line, some forward thinking reform in the District and a surprise home for this year's top free agent -- you'll find it all in Insider's breakdown of the Southeast Division.

Team Need
Washington Capitals Roster | Stats A second line forward
Carolina Hurricanes Roster | Stats A power forward
Florida Panthers Roster | Stats A defenseman
Atlanta Thrashers Roster | Stats A No. 1 defenseman
Tampa Bay Lightning Roster | Stats Defense ... and lots of it

Northeast Division

PLUGGING HOLES

The gaping rosters holes of the Habs, GM Burke's best course of action for the crease and the Sens priority beyond Dany Heatley -- it's all in Insider's breakdown.

Team Need
Toronto Maple Leafs Roster | Stats A No. 1 goaltender
Buffalo Sabres Roster | Stats A backup goaltender
Montreal Canadiens Roster | Stats Pick one
Ottawa Senators Roster | Stats A puck-moving defenseman
Boston Bruins Roster | Stats A veteran forward

Central Division

PLUGGING HOLES

Insider examines the Wings' major weakness, a potential big trade for the Blues and more in the Central Division.

Team Need
Chicago Blackhawks Roster | Stats Team penalty killing
Columbus Blue Jackets Roster | Stats A playmaking center
Detroit Red Wings Roster | Stats Penalty-killing forward
Nashville Predators Roster | Stats A second-line winger
St. Louis Blues Roster | Stats An offensive defenseman

Northwest Division

PLUGGING HOLES

Insider leads the offseason discussion as Calgary battles the Cap, the Wild begin their makeover and Edmonton could use some blue-collar help. And that's before we even get to the Sedin twins.

Team Need
Vancouver Canucks Roster | Stats Top-six forward
Calgary Flames Roster | Stats A defensive forward
Edmonton Oilers Roster | Stats Penalty-killing forward
Minnesota Wild Roster | Stats Secondary scoring
Colorado Avalanche Roster | Stats Goaltending

Pacific Division

PLUGGING HOLES

Insider discusses the Stars' crease, a trade that could render the young Kings ready for primetime and a recurring theme for the Pacific teams -- a lack of offense.

Team Need
San Jose Sharks Roster | Stats Offense
Anaheim Ducks Roster | Stats A scoring left wing
Dallas Stars Roster | Stats Goaltending
Los Angeles Kings Roster | Stats Offense
Phoenix Coyotes Roster | Stats Offense

Note: A mainstay of Puck Prospectus's metrics is "Goals Versus Threshold" (GVT). The stat blends an array of offensive and defensive figures to measure the value, in terms of goals, a player contributes above what the marginal player would over the course of the season. A marginal player is one that could be replaced with a player of equivalent skill, e.g. from the minors. For instance, Evgeni Malkin had an offensive GVT of +18.9, a defensive GVT of +4.5 and a total GVT of +23.4 for the 2008-9 regular season, meaning that Malkin was worth 23.4 goals more than a marginal player over the course of the season, or worth about 0.3 additional goals per game. In the team context, GVT refers to performance above an NHL average team. For the regular season, the Detroit Red Wings had a +30.8 offensive GVT, a +15.1 defensive GVT, a -21.5 goaltending GVT, for a +24.4 total GVT. Therefore, at even strength, Detroit was 24.4 goals better than the average team.

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