Will defense hold contenders back?

It's often said that "defense wins championships," but some of this year's top teams are certainly hoping that's not true. New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots fans are worried that no matter how good the offenses, their teams simply can't stop opponents consistently enough to go far in the postseason. Green Bay Packers fans don't have the same worry, mostly because they haven't yet seen their team lose a game this year, but it's no secret that the Green Bay defense has been giving up loads of yards, as well.

Based on play-by-play analysis, all three teams rank among the top 10 offenses that Football Outsiders has tracked in our database, which goes back to 1992. However, all three teams have problems on defense: Although the Packers' defense has improved to 21st in our ratings right now, the Patriots are 29th and the Saints are 30th.

If they continue at their current paces, all three teams will show up on lists of "the worst defenses to ever make the playoffs." It's actually not an issue with points scored; thanks to their predilection for turnovers, none of these three teams will likely sit on the list of most points scored against a playoff team. But when it comes to yards per play, these teams are lousy. How far can they go in the playoffs with such poor defenses?

To read the full story about whether poor defenses will cost Green Bay, New Orleans or New England in the playoffs, sign up for ESPN Insider.

• Recommend0
• Email

Aaron Schatz

• Follow
• Archive

• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"