What lies beneath

This story appears in the Oct. 31 issue of ESPN The Magazine.

TO TRULY UNDERSTAND the 2011 San Diego Chargers, let's go back to the late 1970s in baseball. The Expos had two future Hall of Famers in Andre Dawson and Gary Carter and ripped off five straight winning seasons. The now-defunct Spos may have had the best roster in baseball and were billed as the team of the '80s. Yet they never made it to the World Series. At the time, a young stats guru named Bill James pointed out that some glaring weaknesses, including the game's worst starting second baseman (Doug Flynn, who never had an OBP above .270 as an Expo), served to offset Montreal's strengths.

Now look at the Chargers. For the past five years, San Diego has boasted the NFL's best depth. But every season, gaping holes drag the Chargers down, and they limp home to watch seemingly less talented teams in the playoffs and Super Bowl.

Don't count on this year being any different. The team's 4-1 start was the result of a weak schedule. The tough stretch starts now (future opponents' combined record through five weeks: 31-23). The Chargers are also facing big personnel problems.

To read more about why the San Diego Chargers may be in trouble, you must be an ESPN Insider.

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KC Joyner

NFL Insider

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• NFL and CFB analyst for ESPN Insider
• Known as "The Football Scientist"
• Uses proprietary metrics from game tape study