Commentary

Checkdown

Peyton Manning's new contract: Just rewards...or just insane?

Updated: August 17, 2011, 11:42 AM ET

By K.C. Joyner and Aaron Schatz | ESPN The Magazine

Recommend 0
Email

WHEN THE COLTS RECENTLY RE-SIGNED 35-year-old Peyton Manning to a five-year, $90 million contract, we wanted to assess the deal the old-fashioned way: by throwing two combative statheads in a room and locking the door until one of them cried real tears. KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, and Aaron Schatz, creator of Football Outsiders, volunteered for our verbal roshambo. Gents, take it away.

KCJ: What were the Colts thinking? Don't they know what history says about the future of old quarterbacks? Since 1970, the 35-and-older quarterback age set has accounted for only 10.8 percent of all QB starts -- which drops to 4.6 percent at age 37 and 2.5 percent at age 38.

Then there are Manning's neck surgeries. The last one was reportedly so physically limiting, he couldn't even work out. I just hope he doesn't have another Saturday Night Live gig lined up, because as bad as he looked without a shirt back then, he might look like the second coming of Billy Kilmer now.

AS: Well, I doubt Indy would've made the offer if the doctors hadn't signed off. And even if he declines, he's declining from such a high level. Last year, Manning was still second in value in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) stat.

In fact, he's been first or second in DYAR every year since 2003. Even if he plays to the level he did in 2010 -- statistically, his worst year since 2002 -- he'll still be worth his contract's $18 million average salary for at least the next couple years.

Become an ESPN Insider and read the full debate over Peyton Manning and whether he will be worth the full value of his deal to Indy.