Tuley's Take: Week 11 ATS picks

Insider's Vegas pro football wiseguy picks games against the spread

Updated: November 15, 2013, 3:37 PM ET
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

Las Vegas, The Strip, CityCenter, Aria ResortGetty ImagesESPN betting expert Dave Tuley looks to rebound after a rough NFL Week 10.

LAS VEGAS -- In a disappointing season, last week was even more so.

I really felt NFL Week 10 was going to go well for the underdogs, and I was right, as 'dogs went 7-6 ATS. But I was totally off in backing the wrong ones. In fact, of the six losing 'dogs, I landed on five of them as I went 1-5-1 ATS. The push was on the Texans plus-3 in their 27-24 loss to the Cardinals and the silver lining is that it went to 3.5 and even 4 over the weekend, so I won my personal wager -- and so did anyone else taking them -- but it's not as though I'd be doing cartwheels here if I had gone 2-5.

The worst part was that out of my unofficial picks -- labeled as "pool plays" -- that went 4-2 ATS, there were three underdogs (Jaguars, Rams and Panthers) that I recommended but wasn't smart enough to see they were stronger plays than my so-called "best bets." All three not only covered but pulled outright upsets. I always try to be selective in finding the most live underdogs, but I think that last week I felt I was having too many plays (seven of the 12 Sunday and Monday games). I always go back to the mantra that "a play is a play," and I think I departed from that a little by not including those other 'dogs.

This week, I really like the card again as I think a lot of favorites have been overvalued. I hope the 'dogs will be barking (or at least the ones I'm taking).

Last week: 1-5-1 ATS | Year to date: 30-35-1 (46.2 percent) ATS

Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially because they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.

Note: Consensus pick percentages from ESPN Pick Center as of early Friday morning.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.