Contrarian value bets for Week 11

Where value lies among teams that performed poorly ATS in season's first half

Updated: November 13, 2013, 1:09 PM ET
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights

With 10 weeks of the 2013 NFL season in the books, all 32 teams have played at least nine games, meaning we're officially past the halfway point. By now, analysts and fans have seen enough football to separate the contenders from the pretenders and predict which teams have that championship pedigree.

Recreational bettors also believe they can now distinguish the good teams from the bad and will adjust their action going forward because of first-half results. As contrarian bettors who buy on bad news and sell on good, this is something we can take advantage of -- not only this week, but for the rest of the season. With this in mind, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to create a winning system that exploits early-season results to find NFL betting value.

To get started, I added Bet Labs' "Game Month" filter to isolate only regular-season games played in November, December and January. Next, I applied the "Team ATS%" filter and immediately discovered a system with a sample size of more than 110 games and against-the-spread (ATS) win rate of 60.4 percent that is producing four system matches in Week 11.

PJ Walsh

Sports Insights
PJ Walsh is the Director of Sports Information at SportsInsights.com, a company that monitors the live sports betting market.