Aaron Rodgers' point-spread value

The Millman Rankings look at which players Vegas values most

Originally Published: November 8, 2013
By Chad Millman | ESPN Insider

All week long, I've been getting this question: How much is Aaron Rodgers worth against the point spread?

Well, if you had read Gambling Opus II, you would know he was the most valuable player in the NFL, worth up to 10 points against the spread. The basis for that ranking, which I cobble together with my research buddy Evan Abrams (@betropolitan) is not just Rodgers' on-field value. It's also directly tied to the quality of his backup (the metric we created is called Point Spread Value Above Replacement, or PSVAR, for nonbeginners).

To be frank, Seneca Wallace is the healthcare.gov of quarterbacks; we will wait forever for him to connect with someone. Bettors believe that. And bookmakers underestimated how much bettors believe that. So when Rodgers went down with a shoulder injury, bookmakers adjusted the Packers-Eagles line from a very early posting of Green Bay minus-10 down to Green Bay minus-2.5.

On my podcast this week, Bob Scucci of The Orleans told me he thought Rodgers was worth 8.5 points. I said he was wrong, that Rodgers is worth 10. And the move has proved that to be true. So far, 65 percent of the action is on Philly and the line is now Green Bay minus-1. By Sunday it could be a pick 'em.

Meaning what we said a month ago in the Opus holds true: To those wagering hard-earned units, Rodgers is the most valuable player in the league.

Below I give you the rest of the rankings. Please use them wisely.


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