Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
We've reached the midpoint of the season. Every team has played at least eight games, which is probably enough data to get a good idea of which teams are truly good and bad. It's also enough data to begin to get a little bit of an idea of which teams might be getting better or worse as the year goes along. The lines begin to adjust for teams that seem to be playing better than they did in the first couple weeks of the season, and a number of those teams show up on our list of the most likely upsets of the week (3-point spread or greater):