SNF Showcase: How to bet GB-MIN

Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Sunday night game

Updated: October 27, 2013, 5:38 PM ET
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider

Aaron Rodgers and Adrian PetersonGetty ImagesAaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson square off Sunday night in Minnesota.

The two storylines for this week's "Sunday Night Football" game between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions have to be Green Bay's injuries and the ineffectiveness of 2012 leading rusher Adrian Peterson. Peterson ran for 2,097 yards last season, the most in a single season since Eric Dickerson ran for 2,105 yards in 1984.

Here's a surprising stat: Through six games last season, Peterson had 499 rushing yards; this season, Peterson has 511 yards through six games. The difference is that last season, when Peterson ran for 1,598 yards in the last 10 games, the Vikings started out 4-2, whereas this season they find themselves at 1-5 and in last place.

Since Peterson became the starting running back of the Vikings in 2007, Minnesota is 51-55 straight-up and 45-54-7 against the spread the past six-and-a-half seasons. If you compare some of Peterson's numbers in prime time to his numbers throughout his career, you get a few interesting statistics. The Vikings are 6-13 SU and 5-14 ATS in prime time since 2007 and 1-5 both SU and ATS on SNF. Additionally, he has rushed for 100 yards in five of 19 prime-time games (26.3 percent) compared to 38 of 95 career NFL games (40 percent).

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has had more success in prime time, with a 14-7 SU and 15-6 ATS record since 2009. When he faces an NFC North opponent in prime time, he's even better: 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS record with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Vikings have already started three different quarterbacks so far this year, and the only one to win was Matt Cassel. Newly acquired Josh Freeman went 20-for-53 for 190 yards and had 16 overthrown passes in his Vikings debut Monday night. (For a bit of reference, Peyton Manning has 16 overthrown passes all season.) Original starter Christian Ponder, who again gets the start this week in prime time against the Packers, is 12-17 SU and 13-14-2 ATS as a starter for the Vikings since the middle of 2011.

Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys:

Evan Abrams has been working in sports information and analytics for the past decade in New Jersey, New York, and Las Vegas. Born and raised in New York City, Abrams graduated from Indiana University.