Opening Line: Early Week 8 moves
Week 7 gambling reactions and examining Week 8 early line moves
- Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY SportsAndrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts will likely be overvalued in coming weeks.
LAS VEGAS -- Another NFL week, another mix of alternatingly predictable and surprising results.
Depending on which games you were on, you might think that Week 7 has been as true to form as they come -- Chargers over Jaguars, Panthers over Rams, Falcons over Buccaneers, 49ers over Titans, Packers over Browns -- or maybe you thought it was unpredictable, as there were six upsets: Jets over Patriots, Bengals over Lions, Bills over Dolphins, Redskins over Bears (Chicago closed as a consensus 1-point road favorite), Cowboys over Eagles and, of course, the Colts knocking off the previously unbeaten Broncos.
But when all was said and done (and tabulated in the ViewFromVegas.com forum thread, where I grade against the consensus closing line in Vegas), sevens were wild as favorites and underdogs were 7-7 against the spread for Week 7 heading into Monday night's Vikings-Giants game. For the season, it's also dead even at 51-51-2 ATS with the two "missing" games being due to the fact that I graded the Lions-Redskins game in Week 3 and the Saints-Bears game in Week 5 as closing at pick 'em (thus no favorite or underdog by definition).
There was only one game where the point spread came into play (meaning the favorite won straight-up but did not cover), and it was also the most dramatic end-game result. The Chiefs were a 6.5-point favorite over the Texans and leading just 17-16 when Houston got the ball with 1:46 left inside its own 10-yard line. Everyone watching the game who was aware of the spread was thinking the same thing: "If Case Keenum follows in Matt Schaub's and T.J. Yates' footsteps and throws a pick-six, the Chiefs will cover." Well, it wasn't an interception, but Keenum fumbled and Derrick Johnson picked up the ball and tumbled into the end zone but was ruled down by contact at the 1-yard line.
Those who laid the points were hoping the Chiefs would punch the ball in for the spread-covering TD, but instead they took three kneel-downs (the correct strategic decision instead of scoring and giving the Texans a chance to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion) to remain undefeated.
On May 19, the LVH SuperBook opened its over/under season win totals with the Chiefs at 7. They've matched that with nine games to spare and need just one more win to go over.
Let's see what else we learned over the weekend and look at the early line movement from the Week 8 openers to get us started looking ahead.
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