SNF: How to bet DEN-IND

Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Sunday night game

Updated: October 20, 2013, 5:15 PM ET
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider

Peyton Manning, Andrew LuckGetty ImagesPeyton Manning returns to Indianapolis to face Andrew Luck and the Colts on Sunday night.

The storylines going into this "Sunday Night Football" showdown are simply endless, with Peyton Manning returning home to Indianapolis to face the Colts and the Broncos undefeated and outscoring opponents by 107 points so far this season. The 265 total points Denver has scored through six games is the most in NFL history, with the 2000 Rams (262 points through six games) coming in a close second.

In less than a season and a half, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has played in just 22 games and has recorded nine game-winning drives. In comparison, it took Manning 33 games to post nine game-winning drives in his first three years as QB of the Indianapolis Colts.

Manning has been extremely effective in prime-time games in his career with both the Colts and Broncos, going a combined 38-14 SU and 32-16-4 ATS. Manning is more recently 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in prime-time games as a Bronco, and 16-2 SU and 11-4-3 ATS in his last 18 prime-time games going back to the middle of the 2008 season.

If you begin to take a look at his prime-time splits, though, a trend rises to the top. Manning is 16-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS as a road favorite in prime-time games, winning those games by an average of 13.41 points (228 total) and covering the spread by an average of 8.55 points per game (145.5 total).

Looking at the history of meetings between the Colts and Broncos really has very little significance, as Manning played with Indianapolis a majority of the time. The Colts are 7-2 SU and ATS against Denver since 2002, for reference's sake. The Broncos are currently listed between a 6.5- and 7-point road favorite in Indianapolis this Sunday, and in Manning's career he is 28-7 SU as a road favorite of 4.5 points or more but only 18-17 ATS. On the other side, though, since 2012, Luck and the Colts are 5-0 SU and ATS as a home underdog.

In the injury department for the Denver Broncos, the only noticeable player they may be without on Sunday is Orlando Franklin, who is their starting right tackle and played 432 of 460 total snaps so far this year. Other than Franklin, there really is not too much else to report except for the fact that "the rich get richer" in terms of Von Miller. Miller returns this week from a six-week suspension, giving Denver a player who recorded 86 instances of pressure last year, which was tied for first with Cameron Wake for all defensive players in the NFL.

Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys.


Matchup: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Opened Broncos -5.5; now Broncos -6.5
Total: Opened 57; now 57.5

Evan Abrams has been working in sports information and analytics for the past decade in New Jersey, New York, and Las Vegas. Born and raised in New York City, Abrams graduated from Indiana University.