SNF: How to bet WSH-DAL

Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Sunday night game

Updated: October 13, 2013, 1:11 PM ET
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider

Alfred Morris, DeMarco MurrayGetty ImagesAlfred Morris and DeMarco Murray face off in one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries Sunday night.

The current edition of the NFC East -- Eagles, Giants, Redskins and Cowboys -- have been around for a total of 12 seasons (1968, 2002-2012), and this is the first time all four teams have been below .500 going into Week 6. Part of that statistic is the fact the Dallas Cowboys have only been below .500 going into Week 6 six times since 1965. The Cowboys are currently the only team in the division with a positive point differential (plus-16). The NFC East is 2-11 straight-up and 4-9 against the spread in their 13 games against opponents outside of their division, with a point differential of minus-129 (minus-9.92 points/game) and a spread differential of minus-111.5 (minus-8.57 points/game).

Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 3-2 SU and 0-5 ATS against the Redskins. Under Mike Shanahan, Washington is 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS against Dallas dating back to 2010. Going back to 2005, the Redskins are actually 8-8 SU but 13-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS on the road against the Cowboys. Dallas is currently listed as a 5.5-point home favorite over Washington at multiple shops offshore and in Las Vegas. When the Cowboys are a home favorite of 3.5 or more against their rival, they are 14-4 SU and just 7-11 ATS. Since 2010, Dallas is 11-7 SU and 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more in general, which does not bode well for the Cowboys here.

In looking over Tony Romo's history during prime-time games, some interesting statistics appear pretty quickly. Romo is 26-15 SU and 21-20 ATS in his career on prime-time games but just 13-9 SU and 9-13 ATS at home in those contests. From 2006 to 2009, Romo was 20-4 SU and 17-7 ATS in prime time, with a 12-0 SU mark from 2007-08. From 2010 to present, Romo is just 6-11 SU and 4-13 ATS, which clearly shows a regression occurring just a few years ago.

The Redskins (27th) and Cowboys (32nd) are both in the bottom six in the NFL in opponent passing touchdowns per game and may be part of the reason the total in this game is north of 52 points. This is the first total higher than 49.5 between the Redskins and Cowboys since 1983, and six of nine games with either the Redskins or Cowboys this season have had a team with a minimum of 30 points scored, as well.

Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys:


Matchup: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Opened Dallas -4.5; Now Dallas -5.5
Total: Opened 54; Now "high side of 54"