Vulnerable ATS faves in Week 6
Where value exists using a system analyzing trends of double-digit dogs
- Mike Ehrmann/Getty ImagesAre Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars a wise play as massive underdogs versus the Broncos?
Early in each NFL season, we see smaller point spreads as oddsmakers rely strongly on last year's power ratings to set their lines. But as more and more games are played, new, relevant data becomes available, allowing sports books to refine those numbers and understand the separation that exists between each team.
With a larger sample size, oddsmakers feel more confident posting larger point spreads, a trend we see more frequently as an NFL season wears on.
From 2003 to 2012, only 51 NFL games played in September closed with a double-digit point spread. However, that total more than doubled in December as the number of games with 10-plus point spreads increased to 119.
The table below illustrates this further:
Currently, there are three teams listed as double-digit underdogs for Week 6 (Jaguars, Cardinals and Titans). Because I expect double-digit spreads to become more common as the season progresses, I developed a winning betting system that not only can be implemented this week, but can be used as a baseline system every time we see double-digit underdogs for the rest of the season.
To read more about the best contrarian NFL bets to make for Week 6, you must be an ESPN Insider.
We see that you are not an ESPN Insider. Upgrade today and gain access to our exclusive coverage.
MORE NFL HEADLINES
- Manziel inks endorsement contract with Nike
- Report: Sharper admitted sex not consensual
- Peterson lobbies for Vikings to sign QB Vick
- Bears say thanks, tell Hester he won't return
MOST SENT STORIES ON ESPN.COM
THE NFL ON ESPN.COM
Despite Jadeveon Clowney's insane numbers, doubts remain about what can't be measured.
- NFL Home
- AFC East
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
- NE Patriots
- New York Jets
- AFC West
- Denver Broncos
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Oakland Raiders
- San Diego Chargers
- AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- AFC South
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tennessee Titans
- NFL Nation
- Free-Agent Tracker