Vulnerable ATS faves in Week 4

Where value lies using a betting system fading teams 3-0 ATS

Updated: September 25, 2013, 1:01 PM ET
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights

SchaubAP Photo/Nick WassMatt Schaub and the Houston Texans have value as an underdog in Week 4.

Through the first three weeks of the season, we've analyzed historical trends to build betting systems that pinpoint undervalued teams. In layman's terms, we've let the betting public overreact to a small sample of games and bought the increased line value associated with bad teams. This strategy of "buying on bad" has gotten us off to a very profitable 7-4-1 (63.6 percent) record against the spread (ATS) in our system matches so far this season. While betting on bad teams has always been a pillar of the contrarian betting strategy employed at Sports Insights, we've also had success "selling on good." The idea is fundamentally the same, as we allow the betting public to overreact -- but now the overreaction is related to teams that get off to hot starts ATS.

Considering this concept of selling on good, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to examine how savvy bettors can take advantage of teams on ATS win streaks. After running the numbers, I uncovered a system with an ATS win rate of 65.6 percent that highlights four teams as smart bets in Week 4.

To create this system, I applied Bet Labs' ATS streak filter to examine how teams that start a season 3-0 ATS perform in their fourth game. The table below displays the results, dating back to the 2004 NFL season.


To read more about where the contrarian betting value lies in Week 4 of the NFL, plus to gain access to all of ESPN Insider's NFL and gambling content, you must be an ESPN Insider.

PJ Walsh

Sports Insights
PJ Walsh is the Director of Sports Information at SportsInsights.com, a company that monitors the live sports betting market.