Sophomore slump? Don't bet on it

Expect improvement from Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson

Updated: September 6, 2013, 1:26 PM ET
By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell WilsonAP Photo, Getty ImagesAndrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson all have areas to grow in Year 2.

Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson led the way for the greatest rookie quarterback class in NFL history last year. From breaking records to leading sub-.500 teams in 2011 to the playoffs in 2012, their seasons are in the conversation for the best debuts ever.

So how many of them will suffer the dreaded "sophomore slump" this year?

Not so fast. By and large, the sophomore slump has become a false prophecy. For starters, in order for it to even be applicable the Year 2 QB must have been really good the previous year. No one is going to accuse Cleveland quarterback Brandon Weeden of a sophomore slump this year, because he was one of the worst starters in the NFL, ranking 33rd in Total QBR. How much lower could he go?

Based on the recent trend, rather than predicting the player to take a step back, the expectations should be that these QBs will continue to progress. That first season was a great learning experience and the time to make the rookie mistakes you will not make again.


To read Scott Kacsmar's full story on whether Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson will see a sophomore slump, sign up for Insider today.

Scott Kacsmar

Football Outsiders
Scott Kacsmar is an Assistant Editor at Football Outsiders.