Tuley's Take: Wild-card ATS picks

My overall Tuley's Take record for the regular season was a respectable 72-58-2 (55.4 percent), though it was a letdown after starting the first few weeks hitting better than 70 percent. However, I warned that no one can maintain that level of success over the long run.

Regular readers came to know that I'm mostly a 'dog-or-pass handicapper. Those preferred underdog plays performed better at 61-45-2 (57.5 percent), while the favorites that I went with managed to go only 11-13 and dragged down my overall win percentage -- and reinforce my feeling that I'm allergic to chalk.

We're forging ahead in the playoffs. For the uninitiated, I break down each game by going over the "public perception" on each matchup (aided by the consensus pick numbers from ESPN Insider's PickCenter, which also has a lot of great information to use in your own handicapping). Then I look at what the "wiseguys' view" is on each game to see what the Vegas sharps are looking at and how they might be attacking the bookmakers. Finally, I give my "take" on the game, which has an intended double-meaning.

So let's look at this weekend's four wild-card matchups. Oh, and happy New Year. Good luck this weekend (and every weekend).

Last week: 3-5 ATS | Year to date: 72-58-2 (55.4 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages from ESPN PickCenter as of early Thursday.

Spread: Texans minus-4.5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Texans

Public perception: As I've often discussed, the public tends to back the favorites, but I'm seeing some interesting betting patterns for this wild-card weekend, starting with the opener. The action has been pretty much split. Earlier this season, the Texans were turning into a public team as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and they appeared in line to wrap up the AFC's No. 1 seed or at least a first-round bye. However, they struggled the final quarter of the season at 1-3 straight up and against the spread and now have to play on wild-card weekend. The public isn't lining up to back them anymore. Meanwhile, the Bengals aren't considered a very sexy team, so it's no surprise the action is pretty much split 50/50.

Wiseguys' view:

To see Dave Tuley's analysis and picks against the spread for every wild-card weekend game, become an ESPN Insider today.

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Dave Tuley

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Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.