Tuley's Take: Week 17 NFL picks
Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)
It didn't make up for my 0-6 record the week before, but last week I was happy to at least get back on the winning track, going 4-3-1 against the spread.
I consider that shooting par as 4-3 (discarding the push) is 57.1 percent and right around my winning percentages for the season. My overall record stands at 69-53-2 (56.6 percent), which slightly improved from 56.5 percent last week. My preferred underdog play record is now 58-41-2 (58.6 percent), down just a tick from last week's 58.7 percent.
Week 17 is always a tough handicapping exercise as we have some teams fighting for playoff spots while others are playing out the string. If you're betting on teams in must-win situations, the oddsmakers are going to make you pay a premium. And remember, teams in must-win situations don't always win; if these teams were so good that they could win whenever they wanted, they wouldn't be in a must-win situation in the first place.
This week, I'm taking a number of underdogs that are getting more points than I feel they should due to the lines being inflated.
Last week: 4-3-1 ATS | Year to date: 69-53-2 (56.6 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.
Spread: Bills minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Bills
Public perception: Both teams playing out the string. Given their druthers (hey, I don't think I've heard or used that expression since I was knee-high to a grasshopper), the public has chosen to go against the QB circus in New York.
Wiseguys' view: There's no apparent sharp side here, but this line has wavered between 3 and 3.5, so it's a game in which no wiseguy worth his salt will be laying minus-3.5 or taking only plus-3.
Tuley's Take: I can't find much reason to back either side, though the Bills are 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year (2-7 ATS as a dog), so they tend to play well against other mediocre teams that they're supposed to beat. The pick:
To see Dave Tuley's analysis and picks against the spread for every Week 17 NFL game, become an ESPN Insider today.
MORE NFL HEADLINES
- Cards, CB Peterson agree to record $70M deal
- Sources: Gordon faults secondhand smoke
- Police: Cards' Abraham passed out at wheel
- Ryan on Jets' big boasts: 'It's who we are'
MOST SENT STORIES ON ESPN.COM
NFL WEEK 17 COVERAGE
Fantasy Football on ESPN.com
NFL Nation blog | Leaders NFL Stadium Guides | QBR ratings
Playoff scenarios | Playoff Machine