Tuley's Take: Week 16 NFL picks

Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)

Originally Published: December 21, 2012
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
JetsJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesIt might be wise to pick against the Jets this week.

After an ugly 0-6 week, what more can you say?

There were a few games that could have gone either way, but several weren't even close so excuses can only go so far.

The fact is that if I (or any other handicapper) were to play six games every week, there would inevitably be a week that goes 0-6, even for the greatest bettors in the world. The key is that in the long run, you want to have more 6-0's than 0-6's, more 5-1's than 1-5's, 4-2's than 2-4's, and hopefully those also make up for the lost vig in all the 3-3 weeks you're bound to have.

The lousy week dropped my overall record to 65-50-1 (56.5 percent), though my 0-5 mark on underdogs still only dropped my record to 54-38-1 (58.7 percent) on the dogs I prefer and I can get back to 60 percent with a 6-2 week.

When my daughter fell off her bike the other day, I repeated what my old man always told me: the best thing to do is get back on. Well, it's the same with handicapping, so let's look at this weekend's card.

Last week: 0-6 ATS | Year to date: 65-50-1 (56.5 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.

Spread: Falcons minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: The public is pounding the Falcons as they can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win. They're also enamored with the Falcons' 34-0 drubbing of the Giants (of course, they could also be fading the Lions off their 38-10 loss to the Cardinals).

Wiseguys' view: In yards per game, the Lions outrank the Falcons on both offense and defense, so these teams are closer than a lot of people think. The Falcons just find a way to win the close games while the Lions don't. The sharps bought the Lions when the line reached plus-4 (and it's likely to become available again).

Tuley's Take: I think the line is overinflated based on the reasons above. It was pick-em in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook a week and a half ago. I just hope the Lions team from Thanksgiving Day when they covered plus-3.5 against the Texans shows up instead of the team that was in Arizona last week.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.