Tuley's Take: Week 16 NFL picks

Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)

Originally Published: December 21, 2012
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
JetsJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesIt might be wise to pick against the Jets this week.

After an ugly 0-6 week, what more can you say?

There were a few games that could have gone either way, but several weren't even close so excuses can only go so far.

The fact is that if I (or any other handicapper) were to play six games every week, there would inevitably be a week that goes 0-6, even for the greatest bettors in the world. The key is that in the long run, you want to have more 6-0's than 0-6's, more 5-1's than 1-5's, 4-2's than 2-4's, and hopefully those also make up for the lost vig in all the 3-3 weeks you're bound to have.

The lousy week dropped my overall record to 65-50-1 (56.5 percent), though my 0-5 mark on underdogs still only dropped my record to 54-38-1 (58.7 percent) on the dogs I prefer and I can get back to 60 percent with a 6-2 week.

When my daughter fell off her bike the other day, I repeated what my old man always told me: the best thing to do is get back on. Well, it's the same with handicapping, so let's look at this weekend's card.

Last week: 0-6 ATS | Year to date: 65-50-1 (56.5 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.


Spread: Falcons minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: The public is pounding the Falcons as they can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win. They're also enamored with the Falcons' 34-0 drubbing of the Giants (of course, they could also be fading the Lions off their 38-10 loss to the Cardinals).

Wiseguys' view: In yards per game, the Lions outrank the Falcons on both offense and defense, so these teams are closer than a lot of people think. The Falcons just find a way to win the close games while the Lions don't. The sharps bought the Lions when the line reached plus-4 (and it's likely to become available again).

Tuley's Take: I think the line is overinflated based on the reasons above. It was pick-em in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook a week and a half ago. I just hope the Lions team from Thanksgiving Day when they covered plus-3.5 against the Texans shows up instead of the team that was in Arizona last week.


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Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.