Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of more than three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
Upset Watch: Philadelphia (+4.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Eagles aren't going anywhere near the playoffs this season, but at least they get an opportunity to play spoiler. They finish the season with three games against playoff contenders, starting with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals may be in the AFC playoff hunt, but they aren't a very good team. They're a slightly good team, just a hair above average. FO ratings have Cincinnati slightly above average on offense and special teams and slightly below average on defense. They are definitely beatable, even by a team with as many problems as the Eagles.