NFL Upset Watch: Week 14

Carolina Panthers can surprise Atlanta Falcons

Originally Published: December 6, 2012
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of more than three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Upset Watch: Carolina (+3.5) vs. Atlanta

The Carolina Panthers are 3-9 and a mess, playing out the string until owner Jerry Richardson once again cleans house in the offseason. The Atlanta Falcons are 11-1 and cruising to a likely top seed in the NFC playoffs. So the idea that Carolina has a good chance to upset Atlanta this week probably sounds a bit absurd. Our numbers disagree.


To see why the Panthers are a good bet to beat the Falcons, plus the top upset in terms of covering the spread, you must be an ESPN Insider. Sign up today!

Aaron Schatz

  • NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
  • Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
  • Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"

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