Tuley's Take: Week 11 NFL picks

Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)

Originally Published: November 16, 2012
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Matthew StaffordSam Greenwood/Getty ImagesMatthew Stafford and the Lions, getting more than a field goal, are a good play against the Packers.

After the sports books suffered one of their worst bloodbaths of all time in NFL Week 9, when favorites went 10-4 against the spread and parlays cashed in record amounts, they bounced back a little last week with underdogs going 8-6 against the spread.

Likewise, because I'm a contrarian bettor who usually is on the opposite side of the public -- and often has the side the books are supporting -- I also rebounded last week with a solid 6-3 ATS mark. The news wasn't quite so good for my SuperContest entry as three losses also found their way onto my card as I went 2-3 for the third straight week, falling to 28-22 (56 percent) and out of the top 100 in the record field of 745 contestants.

Regardless, as long as I'm hitting more than 60 percent of my overall plays -- and hopefully helping my readers along the way -- I certainly can't complain.

Last week: 6-3 ATS | Year to date: 51-29 (63.8 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.

Spread: Redskins minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Redskins
SuperContestants: 116-88 in favor of Redskins

Public perception: The public continues to back RG3 and the Skins despite their being 3-5 against the spread, including two straight setbacks. The public wants no part of this Philly team anymore.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps grabbed this at lower numbers, from minus-1.5 to minus-2.5 and even minus-3, but now are mostly staying away. There could be some buyback on the Eagles at plus-4, but wiseguys aren't likely to play a rookie QB such as Nick Foles on the road.

Tuley's take: I would love to make a case for the Eagles with Foles, especially against the Redskins' pass defense (allowing 301.7 yards per game), but just can't pull the trigger. The pick:

To see Dave Tuley's analysis and picks against the spread for every Week 11 NFL game, become an ESPN Insider today.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.