Tuley's Take: Week 11 NFL picks

Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)

Originally Published: November 16, 2012
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Matthew StaffordSam Greenwood/Getty ImagesMatthew Stafford and the Lions, getting more than a field goal, are a good play against the Packers.

After the sports books suffered one of their worst bloodbaths of all time in NFL Week 9, when favorites went 10-4 against the spread and parlays cashed in record amounts, they bounced back a little last week with underdogs going 8-6 against the spread.

Likewise, because I'm a contrarian bettor who usually is on the opposite side of the public -- and often has the side the books are supporting -- I also rebounded last week with a solid 6-3 ATS mark. The news wasn't quite so good for my SuperContest entry as three losses also found their way onto my card as I went 2-3 for the third straight week, falling to 28-22 (56 percent) and out of the top 100 in the record field of 745 contestants.

Regardless, as long as I'm hitting more than 60 percent of my overall plays -- and hopefully helping my readers along the way -- I certainly can't complain.

Last week: 6-3 ATS | Year to date: 51-29 (63.8 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.


Spread: Redskins minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Redskins
SuperContestants: 116-88 in favor of Redskins


Public perception: The public continues to back RG3 and the Skins despite their being 3-5 against the spread, including two straight setbacks. The public wants no part of this Philly team anymore.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps grabbed this at lower numbers, from minus-1.5 to minus-2.5 and even minus-3, but now are mostly staying away. There could be some buyback on the Eagles at plus-4, but wiseguys aren't likely to play a rookie QB such as Nick Foles on the road.

Tuley's take: I would love to make a case for the Eagles with Foles, especially against the Redskins' pass defense (allowing 301.7 yards per game), but just can't pull the trigger. The pick:

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.