Tuley's Take: Week 10 NFL picks

Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)

Originally Published: November 9, 2012
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Drew BreesJeff Gross/Getty ImagesDrew Brees and the Saints are a good underdog play at home against the Falcons.

The public got its revenge last weekend, with NFL favorites going 10-4 against the spread. The books in Las Vegas reported one of their worst weekends ever, as all of the popular teams covered and the books had to pay out a record number of parlays.

The underdogs that did cover -- Colts versus Dolphins, Panthers versus Redskins, Buccaneers versus Raiders and Steelers versus Giants -- were popular plays, so it was a perfect storm.

Since I'm an underdog bettor, weekends like this are usually a disaster, but somehow I escaped relatively unscathed. I went 4-3 against the spread last week with my Chalk Play of the Week on the Bears over the Titans and three 'dogs covering out of the four available.

It will be interesting to see what happens this week. A lot of people are saying favorites are the way to go, but I'm starting to see a little overadjustment in some of the lines. I think 'dogs -- and those who play them -- will bounce back just fine.

Last week: 4-3 ATS | Year to date: 45-26 (63.4 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.


Spread: Patriots minus-11
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Patriots


Public perception: Already willing to bet the Patriots at any price, the public's last memory of them is the Pats' 45-7 rout of the Rams in London. The Bills couldn't cover the 11-point spread at Houston, so why should they in New England?

Wiseguys' view: The sharps generally love to take double-digit 'dogs in the NFL, but they're not jumping all over the Bills with the Patriots coming off a bye.

Tuley's take: I have to pass as well. I had the Bills last week against the Texans and was discouraged that they weren't able to get the cover. Plus, they were blown out at home 52-28 in the first Pats-Bills meeting this season despite having a 21-7 lead, so no number looks safe. The pick:

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.