NFL Upset Watch: Week 10

Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Upset Watch: Cincinnati (+4) vs. New York Giants

The Giants started 6-2 before losing last week at home to the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers. Does this sound familiar to anyone? The Giants have gone in the tank at midseason every year since 2006 -- except for 2009, when they went in the tank at the start of October instead. Yes, twice the Giants made up for it by getting their collective act together by late December and going on a Super Bowl run. But they also missed the playoffs twice during that period.

Are the Giants about to enter another one of their second-half crashes? And is Cincinnati a team well-equipped to help make that happen?

To see the week's best possibility for an upset, plus the top upset in terms of covering the spread, you must be an ESPN Insider. Sign up today!

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"