Tuley's Take: Week 9 NFL picks

Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)

Originally Published: November 2, 2012
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
SpillerKevin Hoffman/US PresswireC.J. Spiller and the Bills are a good play as double-digit dogs against the Texans.

OK, gambling gods, you've proved my point. Enough is enough.

During my hot streak in this space, I warned about the inevitable regression to the mean. No handicapper can maintain a 70 percent winning percentage against widely available numbers. It's just too difficult of a task.

But enough is enough.

I went 3-6 two weeks ago and 4-4 last week to drop to 64.1 percent overall. That seems like a reasonable middle ground to me, but what do I have to do to appease the gambling gods?

Underdogs as a whole have cooled off. I now have them at 70-45-3 on the season after the Chiefs got blown out by the Chargers Thursday night. Most of you have figured out by now that I'm mostly an underdog player (that's an understatement), and I rode their early success. I'm still hitting 66.7 percent of my underdog picks here at 32-16, while I'm 9-8 with favorites after using the Patriots last week.

So, now my task is finding the best dogs (with a few faves sprinkled in) in a market that will likely be around a 50-50 split between underdogs and favorites moving forward.

Last week: 4-4 ATS | Year to date: 41-23 (64.1 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.


Spread: Broncos minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Broncos
SuperContestants: 222-129 in favor of Broncos


Public perception: It seems the whole world is on the Broncos' bandwagon after their 34-14 rout of the Saints last Sunday night. Peyton Manning is a lock for Comeback Player of the Year. Plus, Denver's defense is third in the AFC in yards allowed per game.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are also starting to like the Broncos more and more. In fact, they're tied for sixth with the undefeated Falcons in the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll that I'm part of at ESPN Insider, despite being 4-3.

Tuley's take: I'm still not sold on the Broncos (note to Sal Selvaggio, one of the other panelists on the Bettors' Poll: I guess I'm the one keeping the Broncos from being ranked even higher). Granted, they've had a tough early schedule, but they're still only 4-3 and not as great as everyone is making them out to be. The Bengals, a live home dog (which are 22-17 ATS, 56.4 percent) coming off their bye (those teams 9-5 ATS), should put forth their best effort. The pick:


To see Dave Tuley's analysis and picks against the spread for every Week 9 NFL game, become an ESPN Insider today.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.