NFL Upset Watch: Week 9

Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Upset Watch: Dallas (+4) at Atlanta

This week, there aren't any games that qualify as likely upsets based on the Outsiders formula. So instead, let's look at what would be this week's most interesting upset. Can the Dallas Cowboys end Atlanta's bid for an undefeated season?

To see the week's best possibility for an upset, plus the top upset in terms of covering the spread, you must be an ESPN Insider. Sign up today!

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"