Blown call impacts playoff odds

Packers and Seahawks both see big swings in postseason probability

Updated: September 25, 2012, 1:08 PM ET
By Keith Goldner | numberFire
Packers vs SeahawksAP Photo/Ted S. WarrenReplacement officials may have seriously affected the Packers' postseason chances.

Seldom are there sports moments like Monday night, when everyone and their respective mothers band together in outrage. Twitter exploded. When something so obviously wrong happens -- such as the officials incorrectly handing the Seattle Seahawks a win over the Green Bay Packers -- it brings out the critic in everyone. And if this gaffe impacts the postseason, those critics will only get louder.

This got us thinking: Just how much of an effect could that interception/touchdown have on the Packers' and Seahawks' seasons? Particularly their postseasons.

The Seahawks move to 2-1 in what is strangely a very competitive NFC West division. (Remember when Seattle made the playoffs at 7-9?). The Packers, on the other hand, move to 1-2 and have now lost more games than they did all last year. What impact will that blown call have on the 2012 NFL playoff picture? We can tell you.

Using advanced analytics and forward-based modeling that accounts not only for current records and historical trends but also incorporates a team's projected talent level, we at numberFire have crunched the playoff odds for you. Keep in mind, it's extremely early in the season, so a lot can and will change moving forward. But still, the impact from Monday night was quite significant.