Upset Watch: Week 3

Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Beginning this week, a small change: For a game to be featured in Upset Watch, the line needs to be at least three points.

Upset Watch: Arizona (+4) vs. Philadelphia

Six teams still remain undefeated in the NFL, but two of them haven't been particularly convincing. And it just so happens that those two teams play each other this weekend.

The Eagles have won their first two games by just one point apiece, despite a turnover margin of minus-3. The Cardinals have won by a combined six points, despite averaging just 4.2 yards per play on offense. Yet one of these teams will walk out of Sunday's matchup at 3-0, and that's a pretty good place to be. Roughly 80 percent of teams that start 3-0 will end up in the postseason. The question, naturally, is which team will that be?

To see the week's best possibility for an upset, you must be an ESPN Insider. Sign up today!

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"