Commentary

Handicapping the Andrew Luck race

Here are five early contenders to 'win' the rights to draft Stanford's star

Originally Published: September 17, 2011

Forecasting the NFL draft lineup in September is like forecasting the April weather. There just hasn't been enough football played to make any significant conclusions. That said, I must have been asked 10 times this week about who I thought was "in the lead" for Andrew Luck. Everyone seems convinced that if there was a season to go 0-16, this is the one.

It's a crazy thought, because teams simply don't tank their seasons in the NFL. Not only could having a record like that lead to a new coach and a gutted roster for a team that may have already had some promising young talent, but there are also potentially a couple of other legitimate top-five talents at quarterback in this year's draft class.

But when I mentioned it, my editor said it had to be done. So based on the current odds -- as in who currently has the worst shot to make the Super Bowl, and thus the best shot to have the worst record and land the top overall pick -- here's a look at which teams could be in the lead, why, why not, and whether they could pass up on Luck.