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Top 10 riskiest NFL offseason moves

Teams looking to trade for Kevin Kolb should remember he's been on the bench more than the field. John David Mercer/US Presswire

2011 NFL FREE AGENCY BUYER'S GUIDE:

BEST FIRST MOVE FOR EVERY TEAM | BARGAINS | BEST FITS | RISKIEST MOVES | TEAMS IN DANGER | PROJECTING IMPACT | NFL RUMORS

NFL general managers are going to be in a tough spot now that the lockout has ended and the free-agent bidding period is about to begin. The combination of a slew of talented free agents, the new salary-floor rules and the short period of time available to get players signed and into camp greatly increases the chances of making expensive personnel acquisition mistakes.

One of the ways to avoid those mistakes is through risk management. Effective use of this technique helps determine which players are worth taking a risk on and which are best avoided (or at least should be avoided at the wrong price).

It is with that thought in mind that we present the top 10 riskiest free agents/likely-to-be-traded veterans on the market.


10. CB Nnamdi Asomugha

Asomugha is a terrific cornerback, but an $18 million per year price tag is a premium cost that makes sense only if the player is far ahead of his competition.

That may not be the case with Asomugha. Look at this comparison with Johnathan Joseph:

Joseph has been targeted nearly three times as often, yet has a lower YPA total. This isn't to say that Joseph is the better cornerback, but if he can be had for half the cost of Asomugha (or less), it could be a move that provides much more bang for the buck.