Week 17 NFL playoff odds
Can Dallas, Green Bay win without Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers?
The Week 16 playoff odds story has been corrected.
Due to an oversight, the equation that was used in the Week 16 Playoff Odds Report resulted in incorrect results for single-game probabilities, generally slanting the results too heavily toward the favorite. The odds for the two-game scenarios were correct.
Heading into Week 17, there's a satisfying mix of straightforward playoff scenarios and convoluted messes. Eight teams have clinched a postseason berth, but only one has clinched a first-round bye (Denver), while five of the remaining seven (New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Carolina and San Francisco) have non-zero probabilities related to three or more different seeds. The hope of overcoming Football Outsiders' current playoff odds is alive for six teams, but only two of them (Dallas and Green Bay) have a 1-in-3 chance or better, and both of those teams will likely be missing their star quarterbacks.
With all of these things in mind, this week's column focuses on the more complicated scenarios and provides more detail than before.
Here are the Week 17 playoff odds:
AFC playoff projections
(1) Denver Broncos
Current record: 12-3 | Weighted DVOA: 25.9 percent
Projected wins: 12.7
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly Change: 0.0 percent