Week 17 NFL playoff odds
Can Dallas, Green Bay win without Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers?
- AP Photo, Getty ImagesDallas' Kyle Orton, left, and Philadelphia's Nick Foles can send their teams to the playoffs with a win.
The Week 16 playoff odds story has been corrected.
Due to an oversight, the equation that was used in the Week 16 Playoff Odds Report resulted in incorrect results for single-game probabilities, generally slanting the results too heavily toward the favorite. The odds for the two-game scenarios were correct.
Heading into Week 17, there's a satisfying mix of straightforward playoff scenarios and convoluted messes. Eight teams have clinched a postseason berth, but only one has clinched a first-round bye (Denver), while five of the remaining seven (New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Carolina and San Francisco) have non-zero probabilities related to three or more different seeds. The hope of overcoming Football Outsiders' current playoff odds is alive for six teams, but only two of them (Dallas and Green Bay) have a 1-in-3 chance or better, and both of those teams will likely be missing their star quarterbacks.
With all of these things in mind, this week's column focuses on the more complicated scenarios and provides more detail than before.
Here are the Week 17 playoff odds:
AFC playoff projections
(1) Denver Broncos
Current record: 12-3 | Weighted DVOA: 25.9 percent
Projected wins: 12.7
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly Change: 0.0 percent
To see the full playoff odds for Week 17, you must be an ESPN Insider.
We see that you are not an ESPN Insider. Upgrade today and gain access to our exclusive coverage.
MORE NFL HEADLINES
- Reports: Saints to release Sproles if no trade
- Judge says Sharper can't be held indefinitely
- Source: Vikings to re-sign Cassel for 2 years
- Saints release veteran receiver Moore
MOST SENT STORIES ON ESPN.COM
THE NFL ON ESPN.COM
Todd McShay's new mock has the Texans taking a QB at No. 1, but it's not Johnny Manziel.
- NFL Home
- AFC East
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
- NE Patriots
- New York Jets
- AFC West
- Denver Broncos
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Oakland Raiders
- San Diego Chargers
- AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- AFC South
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tennessee Titans
- NFL Nation
- Free-Agent Tracker