Upset Watch: Week 16

Football Outsiders looks at a likely upset and cover for Week 16

Updated: December 19, 2013, 12:57 PM ET
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) along with home-field advantage and injury data. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.