Opening Line: Week 15 line moves

Week 14 gambling reactions and examining Week 15 early line moves

Updated: December 10, 2013, 11:45 AM ET
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

LAS VEGAS -- Week 14 in the NFL wrapped up Monday night with the Chicago Bears blowing out the Dallas Cowboys 45-28.

The favorite/over result was more of the same, as the Bears were the 14th favorite to win out of the 16 games (the Jaguars over the Texans on Thursday and the Dolphins over the Steelers on Sunday were the only outright upsets) and faves went 10-6 against the spread, while it was also the 11th game to go over its closing total despite the less-than-ideal weather conditions (more on that in the "Tuley's Takeaways" section).

Home teams were also 14-2 SU and 10-6 ATS, as the only home underdogs were the aforementioned winning Jaguars and the Washington Redskins, who were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs, so those canceled each other out, and home teams and faves posted the same record. Here are the updated NFL betting results heading into Week 15:

Favorites: 142-61 SU, 104-96-4 (52 percent) ... four games have closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 126-77-1 SU, 113-88-4 ATS (56.2 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London; one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 27-42 SU, 37-31-1 ATS (54.4 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 6-18 SU, 15-9 ATS (62.5 percent)
Over/unders: 110-93-5 (54.2 percent)


Tuley's takeaways from Week 14

1. Bad weather does not automatically mean lower scoring

Bettors woke up Sunday morning to reports of bad weather for most of the games back East. They were cutting in line to bet the unders and the sports books here were adjusting those totals downward, but that still didn't stop the avalanche. Early on, it looked like the right way to bet as the games in Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia all looked like stone-cold unders. That was especially true of the game in Philly, which had an over/under of 50.5 but the Lions led 8-0 at halftime as they went for a 2-point conversion on their first TD because there was too much snow on the ground to attempt a kick.


To read more on how to bet Dallas-Chicago, plus Week 14 gambling lessons and analysis on early Week 15 line moves, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.