Tuley's Take: Week 14 ATS picks

Insider's Vegas NFL wiseguy picks games against the spread

Updated: December 6, 2013, 1:15 PM ET
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

Las Vegas, The Strip, CityCenter, Aria ResortGetty ImagesESPN betting expert Dave Tuley gives his NFL wild-card ATS picks.

LAS VEGAS -- Two winning weeks does not make a profitable season, but it beats the alternative.

After going 6-1 against the spread in Week 12, I went 5-3 ATS last week -- including 1-1 on Thanksgiving and then 4-2 Sunday -- to inch closer to .500. The proverbial "one that got away" was the Titans plus-4.5, as it looked as though they were going to cover when they were up 14-12 and even after falling behind 15-14, a sixth Adam Vinatieri field goal wouldn't have put the Colts over the spread. However, they then punched it in for a touchdown and a 22-14 final.

Losses like that are easier to swallow during winning weeks. But enough yakking, let's break down the Sunday and Monday games as we look at how the public and wiseguys are viewing the rest of the NFL Week 14 card and then I'll give my "take" (or "don't take") on each one.

Last week: 5-3 ATS | Year to date: 41-45-3 (47.7 percent) ATS

Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially because they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.

Note: Consensus pick percentages from ESPN PickCenter as of early Friday morning.


Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins

Spread: Chiefs minus-3
Public consensus pick: 87 percent picked Chiefs

Public perception: The public is all over the Chiefs, though a lot of it has to do with the Redskins (3-9 SU and ATS and losers of their past four) being one of the biggest underachieving teams this season.


To see the rest of Dave Tuley's ATS picks for every Week 14 NFL game, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.