The race for the No. 1 pick

Examining which NFL bottom-dwellers have best chance to land top selection

Updated: December 4, 2013, 4:38 PM ET
By Rivers McCown | Football Outsiders

J.J. WattAP Photo/Dave EinselAre J.J. Watt and the Texans in pole position to land the NFL's No. 1 draft pick?

The NFL regular season has just four weeks left, and teams can now be neatly grouped into three classes: contenders, teams with a shot at a top-five draft pick and teams that have a chance to win the sixth seed in the AFC.

Although it's widely expected that Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be the No. 1 pick in the draft, draftniks consider this to be a fairly deep class and South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney was thought of as a probable No. 1 pick heading into the year.

Which teams are in the best position to land one of these players, and what is standing in their way? Let's take a look at our standings projections and the upcoming schedule to suss out which team has the best chance to end up with the first pick.


1. Houston Texans (2-10)


Chance of first overall pick: 59.7 percent
Chance of top-three pick: 84.6 percent
Remaining schedule (weighted DVOA rankings): at Jacksonville (-40.1%), at Indianapolis (-3.1%), vs. Denver (28.3%), at Tennessee (-9.0%)


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Rivers McCown

Football Outsiders
Rivers McCown is an associate editor for Football Outsiders.