Opening Line: Week 14 moves
Week 13 gambling reactions and examining Week 14 early line moves
For the most part, the sports books here broke even, which they would have happily signed off on if you had told them before the weekend that 12 favorites would win straight up. Thanks to the bookies' best friend -- the point spread -- favorites are just 8-6 ATS heading into the Monday night game (note: That doesn't include the Dolphins-Jets game that I graded as closing as a consensus pick 'em, so some would say the faves' edge would be only 8-7 ATS). The books did lose some on teasers as the most popular teams in that form of betting (the Panthers, Broncos and Patriots all getting teased under a field goal) came through, but that was offset by the Dolphins' victory as well as the Jaguars over the Browns and Falcons over the Bills. The books also were helped because four other underdogs covered but didn't win outright so the books didn't have to pay out those moneylines.
But back to the roller-coaster analogy.
On Thanksgiving Day, favorites won all three games, but underdogs were 2-1 ATS, with the Raiders and Steelers getting in the proverbial back door against the Cowboys and Ravens, respectively. All three games went over their closing totals.
In the early games Sunday (1 p.m. Eastern/10 a.m. Vegas time), favorites and underdogs split 3-3 ATS (again, not including the Dolphins-Jets pick 'em game) with the Jaguars being the only outright upset at that point. Unders went 5-2 in the early games, negating the overs' 3-0 on Thursday.
In the "afternoon" games (Vegas time), favorites won and covered three of the four games, with the Bengals being bet to a closing 2-point road favorite at San Diego and the Broncos and 49ers also covering. The Falcons helped the books as the Bills were bet heavily (for such a "meaningless" game) but Atlanta rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to force OT and win 34-31. Now there was a real roller-coaster ride for those of us involved.
Let's take a look at the season-to-date betting stats (against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines) after the Giants' 24-17 win over the Redskins that made favorites 8-6 ATS with home teams going 6-8 ATS (doesn't include the Bills' "home" game in Toronto) and unders leading 8-7 heading into Monday night. Plus, my three biggest lessons from Week 13 and early line moves on the Week 14 games.
To read more about Week 13 gambling lessons and analysis on the early Week 14 line moves in the NFL, you must be an ESPN Insider.
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