Week 12 NFL Playoff Odds

Football Outsiders' playoff odds give most likely teams to reach postseason

Updated: November 19, 2013, 1:28 PM ET
By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders

Geno SmithRick Stewart/Getty ImagesHow much of a hit did the Jets' playoff chances take after a Week 11 loss?

Did the New York Jets' loss to the Buffalo Bills kill their playoff chances? Given what getting blown out by a 3-7 team looks like to the naked eye, the answer is a surprising "no."

There are a few reasons for this. Chief among them is the fact that the Jets' playoff odds were already below 50 percent before they lost to the Bills. The results of Week 11 simply turned a six-team race with the Jets as a clear favorite into a six-team race with the Jets as an unclear favorite. Moreover, last week's simulations produced a Jets loss to Buffalo 55 percent of the time. Believing New York was alive last week but dead this week is more an issue of expectations than reality.

Another reason Jets fans shouldn't overreact is because, at this stage of their season, the games that matter most are those with direct competitors for a playoff spot. Their matchup with Buffalo did not qualify as such.

Prior to Sunday, if you assigned "playoff importance" to each of New York's final seven games, Week 11 would have ranked just above Week 14 (versus Oakland) and Week 15 (at Carolina). That's because a loss to a noncontender or nonconference opponent amounts to a single whammy (i.e., you only hurt your own chances). A loss to a direct competitor, however, is a triple whammy: You hurt your own chances, help a competitor's chances and hand that competitor a head-to-head tiebreaker to use against you.

In short, the Jets' playoff hopes are still very much alive after losing the Bills. But if they lose to the Ravens this week, the patient will be in critical condition.

You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds, on FootballOutsiders.com.


AFC playoff projections

No. 1 Denver Broncos

Current record: 9-1 | Weighted DVOA: 35.4 percent
Mean projected wins: 13.3
Total playoff odds: 100 percent | Weekly change: +0.1 percent

The Broncos haven't clinched a playoff spot yet, but their win over Kansas City all but assured one. The only way they don't make the playoffs is if they lose their final six games, and that happened only 11 times in our 50,000 simulations. Denver plays the sixth-easiest schedule from here out (-6.8 percent average opponent DVOA), and our projection model considers the Broncos an overwhelming favorite in four of their six remaining games. But before anyone cracks open the bubbly, the only tough matchups left on Denver's schedule happen to be against the teams with a realistic chance of stealing away the No. 1 seed (New England and Kansas City).