Aaron Rodgers may own Chicago
Green Bay's QB is great out of the pocket and Bears don't blitz often
Football Outsiders will analyze all postseason matchups on Thursdays through the Super Bowl.
Once again, this week's playoff games are rematches from the regular season. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears split two close games this year -- one early in the season, one late -- while the New York Jets narrowly upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 22-17 five weeks ago. How will this week's rematches turn out? A lot depends on how much each defense sends pressure, as these quarterbacks run the gamut from Aaron Rodgers (who excels against the big blitz) to Mark Sanchez (who struggles mightily).
Much of our analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here. Some of the statistics in this article come from the Football Outsiders game charting project, in which a group of volunteers watches every NFL game to track stats like play-action, blitzes, formations and defensive coverage. Please note that these numbers are incomplete, with roughly 14 games charted for each playoff team.
For the full breakdown on all of the championship weekend NFL games, including key players to watch, you need to be an Insider.
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