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Why Arian Foster is unlikely to top his Week 1 performance against the Colts

Updated: October 31, 2010, 11:43 AM ET
By Tom Gower | Football Outsiders
Arian FosterThomas B. Shea/Icon SMIArian Foster had a huge game against the Colts in Week 1.

Back on opening weekend, Arian Foster gashed the Indianapolis Colts' defense for three touchdowns and 231 yards on the ground. Now it's time for the rematch. The Colts have a mediocre run defense, ranking 29th in our rankings for defense-adjusted value over average, so all signs point to Foster having another good day.

To get a better idea as to what kind of production to expect from Foster the second time around, we researched all running backs who had 200 or more yards rushing against a divisional opponent in the first matchup of the season, and looked at how they fared the second time around. In the DVOA era (1993-present, the years for which we have specific play-by-play breakdown), there have been 12 such backs, including Foster. Duce Staley suffered a season-ending foot injury in 2000 and missed the Eagles' second game against the Cowboys, so that gives us a total of 10 running backs and games to examine.


To read more about how running backs who had 200 or more yards rushing against a divisional opponent in the first matchup of the season fared the second time around and why Matt Schaub could have a big day against the Colts, you must be an ESPN Insider.