Commentary

FBO: Predicting defensive value

Finding the value of D's is as easy as figuring out their historical analogues

Updated: April 8, 2010, 5:21 PM ET
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
[+] EnlargeAnthonio Cromartie
Jason Bridge/US PresswireAntonio Cromartie has had a great career, but historical comparisons suggest that he may not have a season with more than six picks again.

One of our recent projects at Football Outsiders is a similarity scores system for defensive players, similar to the one we use for offense. The similarity scores judge players not just on standard stats (sacks, interceptions) but FO stats (average yards on tackles, stop rates) plus age, career experience and size. The formula is still in flux, but the results produced are always interesting. Looking at historically similar players can often be a good guide to what we can expect in the future, although each of these players, of course, had a different history of injuries and played in a different scheme with different teammates.

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