FBO: Predicting defensive value
Finding the value of D's is as easy as figuring out their historical analogues
One of our recent projects at Football Outsiders is a similarity scores system for defensive players, similar to the one we use for offense. The similarity scores judge players not just on standard stats (sacks, interceptions) but FO stats (average yards on tackles, stop rates) plus age, career experience and size. The formula is still in flux, but the results produced are always interesting. Looking at historically similar players can often be a good guide to what we can expect in the future, although each of these players, of course, had a different history of injuries and played in a different scheme with different teammates.
To keep reading about defensive values in the NFL -- including analysis of Karlos Dansby, Julius Peppers and Kyle Vanden Bosch -- you must be an ESPN Insider.
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