FBO: Examining Jay Cutler's struggles

The merits of the Jay Cutler trade have been debated all year, but one thing is clear: In the short term, it didn't work. Despite a declining defense, a ravaged offensive line and a number of question marks at wide receiver, the Bears bet the house on Cutler and hoped for the best. It's been a disaster in all possible ways: Not only is Cutler's downfield, risk-happy style an atrocious match with offensive coordinator Ron Turner's conservative schematic preferences, but the inevitable emphasis on big plays has taken second-year halfback Matt Forte, once the team's primary offensive weapon, out of the picture.

Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics (explained here), Cutler is nearing the end of the worst single-season drop since at least 1994. What are his chances for recovery?

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"