Commentary

FBO: Week of the shotgun

In many contests, shotgun-specific stats will help determine winners

Updated: December 3, 2009, 6:42 PM ET
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Getty ImagesMr. Vick returns to Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. Will he be used often?

Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.

This week, for the first time in 2009, we have statistics from the Football Outsiders game charting project, in which a group of volunteers watches every NFL game to track stats like play-action, blitzes, formations and defensive coverage. Please note these numbers are incomplete; right now, we've charted roughly 70 percent of all downs this season.

Let's get into it.

The Thursday night game

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets in Toronto

If ever there was a game set up for an obvious offensive strategy, this is it. The Jets' offense is far better on the ground (12th in DVOA) than in the air (29th), while the Bills' defense is great against the pass (fifth in DVOA) and can't do anything to stop the run (28th).

If the Jets do want to throw the ball, watch out for Jerricho Cotchery; the Bills rank third in DVOA against No. 1 receivers but 24th against No. 2 receivers.


To see analysis of more games -- including DAL/NYG and NE/MIA, as well as the Brett Favre Redemption Tour arriving in the desert -- you must be an ESPN Insider.