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Insider

FBO: One leads to the other for Packers

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In Any Given Sunday, Football Outsiders examines the most surprising result of each NFL weekend and where the two teams involved can go from here. This week's edition focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defeating the Green Bay Packers and becoming the final NFL team to record a win in the process.

Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson has put together a solid football team with few weaknesses -- but those weaknesses are so glaring, they all but guarantee the Packers won't win a playoff game this year. Those foibles were in full view Sunday, as the Packers became the first team to lose to Tampa Bay this season.

The first of these weaknesses is obvious: Green Bay gives up sacks at a historically high rate. They have surrendered 37 sacks, most in the league by a wide margin. At Football Outsiders, we measure pass protection by adjusted sack rate, which accounts for down and distance, quality of opposition and (most importantly) number of pass plays. It's no surprise that the Packers have the highest ASR in the league (11.7 percent), but it's even worse that that -- in the 14 years we have kept the data, only nine teams have finished a season with an ASR of 11 percent or higher.