Commentary

FBO: Week 7 number crunching

Palmer and Co. can't let up against the Bears this week if they expect to win

Updated: October 22, 2009, 2:43 PM ET
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesThe Bengals just don't play well when protecting a lead.

Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on the defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.

Sunday

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
It appears that the Bengals have a huge advantage in both red zones. Chicago ranks 31st in offensive DVOA in the red zone and 30th in defensive DVOA. Cincinnati is second on offense and seventh on defense.

If the trends from the first six weeks hold true, neither team will run away with this one. Cincinnati's offense ranks 13th in DVOA when the Bengals are behind or the game is tied, but 30th in DVOA when the Bengals are nursing a lead. The Bears' defense has a similar split: third in DVOA when the Bears are losing, but 21st in DVOA when they're protecting a lead.