How Jets can beat the Patriots

Football Outsiders analyzes the top three NFL matchups each week every Thursday. Here are the top games for Week 13.

This week, the hype in the NFL is all about division rivalries. In the AFC, prime-time rematches between the Ravens and Steelers as well as the Patriots and Jets will likely determine who gets the top two seeds in the AFC playoffs. The biggest NFC game isn't quite as pressing, since Atlanta has a two-game lead over Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers have a big chance to prove they are for real and open the door for either the Saints or themselves to get past the Falcons for the NFC South crown.

Much of our analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it with the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.

For the full breakdown on Week 13's top three games, including key players, you need to be an Insider.

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"