How Jets can beat the Bears

Football Outsiders analyzes the top three NFL matchups each week every Thursday. Here are the top games for Week 16.

With two weeks to go, good teams are angling for playoff position in the best games of the weekend. The Packers and Giants could decide the second NFC wild card spot on Sunday afternoon. The Saints have to beat the Falcons if they hope to repeat as NFC South champions. And while the Jets don't have to beat Chicago to ice away their AFC wild card spot, another win sure would be nice.

Much of our analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here. Some of the statistics in this article come from the Football Outsiders game charting project, in which a group of volunteers watches every NFL game to track stats like play-action, blitzes, formations and defensive coverage. Please note these numbers are incomplete, with most teams charted through Week 12.

For the full breakdown on Week 16's top three games, including key players, you need to be an Insider.

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"