Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.
Sunday 1 p.m. games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (FOX)
Atlanta should be sitting pretty if it can get good gains on first down. The Falcons rank third in offensive DVOA in second-and-short situations, while Tampa Bay is 31st in defensive DVOA in those situations.